The House
435 seats contested218seats for a majority
238Democrats
197Republicans
Democratic control · DDHQ80% chance
Midterms 2026 · The balance of powerBrief reviewed · October 30, 2026
The Midterm Brief.
The seats. The campaigns. The stakes.
Follow the fight for Congress—and the record behind the promises.
11days to election dayTuesday, November 3, 2026
The election outlook
Who takes Congress?
Election forecasts · Every dot represents one seat.
The Senate
35 seats contested51for Democratic control
51Democrats*
49Republicans
Democratic control · DDHQ57% chance
These are DDHQ’s projected seat totals, not election results. Senate figures retain DDHQ’s party categories; current Democratic control calculations include two caucusing independents. At 50–50, the Republican vice-president breaks ordinary Senate ties.
Decision Desk HQ · Source update: House and Senate: Oct 30, 2:39 PM (source timezone unspecified) · House forecast · Senate forecast
The battlegrounds
Where the balance could shift.
Senate race ratings · Select a state to see the contest.
DDHQ ratings · October 24, 2026; polling averages dated separately · 35 contests, including Ohio and Florida specials.
State geography: US Atlas / U.S. Census. Alaska and Hawaii shown as insets.
The House: nine toss-up districts
District contests have their own ratings, separate from the Senate map.
Prediction markets
What the markets are pricing.
Chance of Democratic control · Market prices alongside the election model.
House control
Senate control
Displayed prices, rounded to whole percentages. These measure control, not vote share or seat share. DDHQ also uses market information. The three readings are shown separately, with no blended score.
Market rules & reading the odds
Open each market for its exact control definition, deadline, settlement rules and current bid–ask prices. These are separate source snapshots, not synchronized executable quotes. A market price is an assessment under that contract’s terms. Low liquidity, spreads and trader positioning can affect it. This page shows no invented price history.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices checked October 30. Each market retains its observation time.
The public mood & the economy
The pressures behind the vote.
Every measure keeps its own source, population and observation date.
Generic House ballot
D +953% D · 44% R
Likely voters · Oct 22–26
Reuters / Ipsos
Original poll and methodology Likely voters · Oct 22–26
Reuters / Ipsos
Trump job approval
32%Approval among U.S. adults
Oct 22–26
Reuters / Ipsos
Original poll and methodology Oct 22–26
Reuters / Ipsos
Explore approval trends
Annual CPI inflation
3.7%September 2026 · +0.6% m/m
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly change seasonally adjusted
Original release Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly change seasonally adjusted
Unemployment
4.2%September 2026 · seasonally adjusted
Payrolls +29,000
Initial monthly jobs estimate · BLS
Original release Payrolls +29,000
Initial monthly jobs estimate · BLS
National poll details
Reuters/Ipsos · October 22–26 · released October 26. The full sample includes 1,679 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of ±2.4 points. Congressional preference is among likely voters, including leaners. Results and methodology
October 30 · Emerson College Polling
Hamilton leads in a state Republicans expected to hold.
Adam Hamilton has 49% to Roger Marshall’s 45% in Emerson’s final Kansas poll. Libertarian David Graham and undecided voters each account for 3%. Trump’s approval is 45%, against 51% disapproval. The economy is the leading issue, named by 44%.
Fieldwork and sample
October 26–28, 2026 · 800 likely voters · ±3.5 percentage points. Published October 30. Figures above are the initial ballot question, before undecided voters are pressed to choose.
October 29 · CNN / SSRS
Texas and Kansas keep the Senate map open.
Talarico leads Paxton by six points in Texas; El-Sayed leads Rogers by seven in Michigan. The four-point gaps in Maine and Kansas fall within those surveys’ margins of error.
| State | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico · D49% | Ken Paxton · R43% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed · D49% | Mike Rogers · R42% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson · D49% | Susan Collins · R45% |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton · D49% | Roger Marshall · R45% |
Texas · Senate
CNN / SSRS · Likely voters
James Talarico · D49%
Ken Paxton · R43%
Michigan · Senate
CNN / SSRS · Likely voters
Abdul El-Sayed · D49%
Mike Rogers · R42%
Maine · Senate
CNN / SSRS · Likely voters
Troy Jackson · D49%
Susan Collins · R45%
Kansas · Senate
CNN / SSRS · Likely voters
Adam Hamilton · D49%
Roger Marshall · R45%
Fieldwork, samples and margins of error
Texas: October 20–27, 923 likely voters, ±4.2 points. Michigan: October 20–27, 768 likely voters, ±4.7 points. Maine: October 20–26, 783 likely voters, ±4.5 points. Kansas: October 20–26, 838 likely voters, ±4.5 points. Released October 29.
October 28 releases · State polling
The Senate fight keeps widening.
South Carolina is the striking result: 48% apiece for Andrews and Graham. The same Siena release gives Republicans an edge in Florida and Democrats a substantial lead in Minnesota.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Pollster |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina · Senate | Annie Andrews · D48% | Darline Graham · R48% | Times / Siena |
| Ohio · Senate | Sherrod Brown · D47% | Jon Husted · R44% | Suffolk / USA TODAY |
| Florida · Senate | Angie Nixon · D44% | Ashley Moody · R50% | Times / Siena |
| Minnesota · Senate | Peggy Flanagan · D54% | Michele Tafoya · R40% | Times / Siena |
South Carolina · Senate
Times / Siena · Likely voters
Annie Andrews · D48%
Darline Graham · R48%
Ohio · Senate
Suffolk / USA TODAY · Likely voters
Sherrod Brown · D47%
Jon Husted · R44%
Florida · Senate
Times / Siena · Likely voters
Angie Nixon · D44%
Ashley Moody · R50%
Minnesota · Senate
Times / Siena · Likely voters
Peggy Flanagan · D54%
Michele Tafoya · R40%
Poll dates and the governor’s races
All four Senate results are among likely voters and were released October 28. Suffolk interviewed 500 Ohio likely voters October 21–26; statewide margin of error: ±4.4 points. Siena links the separate state toplines and methods above.
Governor: Ohio, Amy Acton 48%–Vivek Ramaswamy 44%; Florida, Byron Donalds 48%–David Jolly 44%; Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar 56%–Lisa Demuth 38%; South Carolina, Alan Wilson 51%–Jermaine Johnson 44%.
October 28 · Marist / New York
Trump’s home state sends him a message.
Marist finds 47% of New York likely voters casting their congressional ballot against Trump, compared with 18% voting to support him. Democrats lead 56%–42% on the statewide congressional question. Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman 53%–42% for governor.
New York likely voters · October 22–25 interviews · Margin of error ±3.9 points.
October 30 · Employment Cost Index
Pay rises. Buying power falls.
The BLS Employment Cost Index puts private-sector wage growth at 3.1% over the year through September, or −0.6% after inflation. Total civilian compensation rose 0.8% in the third quarter.
October 29 · BEA releases
The economy grew. Real incomes fell in September.
The third quarter brought 3.4% annualized GDP growth, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September PCE inflation was 3.6% over the year, or 3.1% excluding food and energy. Real disposable income fell 0.3% during the month; real spending was essentially flat.
October 28 · Federal Reserve
Rates stay put. The dissenters wanted them higher.
The Fed voted 10–2 to hold its target range at 3.75%–4%, with inflation still elevated. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase.
October 26–27 releases · National polling
A referendum with an unwelcome answer.
Marist puts Democrats ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters. Reuters/Ipsos finds a 53%–44% split in its later interviews. In the Ipsos adult sample, just 25% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and 20% approve of his handling of the cost of living.
Marist · Likely voters · October 19–20
October 27 releases · Two Republican-held Senate seats
Maine stays close. Texas gives Paxton another warning.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Interviews |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson 49% | Susan Collins 47% | Oct 22–25 Likely voters |
| Texas | James Talarico 50% | Ken Paxton 45% | Oct 13–21 Registered voters |
Maine
Oct 22–25 · Likely voters
Troy Jackson49%
Susan Collins47%
Texas
Oct 13–21 · Registered voters
James Talarico50%
Ken Paxton45%
Pollsters, samples and margins of error
Maine: Marist; likely-voter margin of error ±6.6 points. Its full registered-voter sample contains 1,449 respondents. Texas: N+ Univision/YouGov; 1,000 registered voters statewide; margin of error ±3.8 points.
October 27 release · EIA
Seven days to go. The cost is still on the sign.
Regular gasoline is down slightly over the week but remains $1.234 a gallon above its year-earlier price. Diesel has risen again, adding to the cost of trucking goods across the country.
EIA · U.S. averages, October 26, 2026
Regular gasoline$4.269per gallon+$1.234 from a year earlier
Diesel$6.352per gallon+$2.634 from a year earlier
October 25 · New York Times / Philadelphia Inquirer / Siena
Four Republican seats. No comfortable lead.
Three Democratic challengers lead in these Pennsylvania surveys; Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson are tied. The pressure runs from the Philadelphia suburbs through the Lehigh Valley and northeastern Pennsylvania to the Harrisburg area.
| District | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie48% | Brian Fitzpatrick46% |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks49% | Ryan Mackenzie44% |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti51% | Rob Bresnahan46% |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson48% | Scott Perry48% |
Likely voters · Results released October 25. District questionnaires, sample sizes and margins of error are linked in Siena’s release.
Already on The 47 Files
What worries voters?
Corruption
88%
High prices
85%
Gas prices
83%
Healthcare
80%
Extremely / very concerned · Fox / Beacon / Shaw
Registered voters · October 9–12 · half-sample questions
Follow the record
From a campaign promise
to a household bill.
Keep the existing charts close to the campaign: prices, work, borrowing, tariffs and the debt. Each opens the full history and sources.
Linked histories retain their own dates; the four indicators above use the source dates shown.
On the air
The campaign, in its own words.
Recent paid advertisements · Sponsor identified · Claims remain attributed.
October 29–30 · Ohio advertising
The attack on Acton’s childhood is off the air.
Vivek Ramaswamy confirmed Thursday that the ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother had stopped running. He said its scheduled run had ended. Trump and Vance had defended the attack; the campaign says four other ads are now in rotation.
October 29 · Campaign advertising
The swamp is back in the campaign ads.
More than $275 million has gone into corruption-themed advertising this cycle, according to AdImpact figures reported by CNN. Democrats account for about $173 million. The ads connect donor influence, congressional stock trading and data-center deals to the price of everyday life.
October 28 · Suffolk / USA TODAY
A nasty ad. Little reward in the polling.
Seventy-two percent of Ohio likely voters had seen or heard about Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. Among those aware of it, fewer than 1% said they had switched from Acton to Ramaswamy; 2% reported moving the other way. Half of likely voters called Ramaswamy’s campaign the more negative one, against 15% naming Acton’s.
Updated October 29 · Campaign disclosure
The FEC filing system is available again.
The FEC says it restored electronic filing at 4:50 PM Eastern on October 28 and is monitoring the fix. The outage began late October 26, interrupting submissions during the final campaign spending rush. The latest official status now shows the system available.
October 26 · House Majority PAC
Late money reaches Indiana and Minnesota.
The Democratic super PAC announced two new television buys: $380,000 in IN-05 and $2,160,000 in MN-01. Together, they add $2.54 million to the final-week fight for the House.
October 15 · Wesleyan Media Project
The attack ads can invent the picture.
Wesleyan identified 220 ads using AI-generated or enhanced material, with more than $137 million spent airing them. Republican sponsors supplied 81% of the ads. Just 27% carried an AI disclaimer.
Nine sourced campaign advertisements · Newest announcements first.
October 23 reporting: Trump backed Ramaswamy’s attack ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, calling it “hitting pay dirt” and Acton “fair game.” Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine had criticized the ad. AP: Trump’s intervention
Developments & the existing record
The story around the numbers.
October 30 · Four days to go
Kansas is still in play. The national forecast moves again.
Emerson puts Hamilton ahead of Marshall, 49% to 45%. DDHQ’s updated national model gives Democrats an 82% chance of taking the House and 62% in the Senate. Kansas remains a toss-up, with Marshall narrowly favored in that model.
October 30 · Early voting
Millions more ballots are already in.
Texas had recorded 6.3 million early votes by Wednesday, against 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, AP reports. Trump’s Sunday stops in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, are back on after Thursday’s cancellations.
October 30 · The fight over the count
Subpoenas in California. A broader lawsuit in Alaska.
New reporting follows the administration’s escalating intervention in state elections: grand-jury subpoenas in Los Angeles and an amended federal complaint aimed at Alaska’s Senate certification.
October 30 · Pay and prices
The raise does not cover the price increases.
Private-sector wages rose 3.1% over the past year. After inflation, they fell 0.6%. The new BLS figures arrive four days before voters decide who controls Congress.
October 30 · Campaign money
The deportation business has a political budget.
An Emancipator investigation traces more than $12 million in political spending linked to five major ICE contractors. The full record follows the companies, executives and committees behind the money.
October 30 · War and the election
A pause at Russian refineries. Another promise on Iran.
The Wall Street Journal reports a Ukrainian pause in refinery strikes expected to extend beyond the U.S. vote. Trump is again promising an end to the Iran war. The new reports sit alongside the campaign’s promises on fuel prices.
October 29–30 · Federal power
Medicaid protections win in court. Comey seeks dismissal.
A judge has struck down an extra barrier to Medicaid protection for medically frail patients. In Washington, Comey’s lawyers are challenging whether the administration missed its charging deadline.
Earlier developments · October 29 edition
October 29 · Five days to go
Republicans are defending a wider map.
New CNN/SSRS polls put Talarico ahead in Texas and El-Sayed ahead in Michigan, with close contests in Maine and Kansas. DDHQ now projects a 52–48 Democratic Senate. The final stretch is reaching into seats Republicans once expected to hold comfortably.
October 28–29 · California
The judge said no. DOJ is appealing.
Judge David Carter rejected the administration’s attempt to segregate roughly 20,000 California ballots. DOJ is asking the Ninth Circuit to intervene urgently as voting continues.
October 29 · Alaska
The Senate fight becomes a criminal investigation.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into Mary Peltola’s campaign after reporting that it helped recruit a candidate with a name resembling incumbent Dan Sullivan’s. Trump had called for her prosecution.
October 29 · The last pre-election snapshot
Growth accelerates. Purchasing power slips.
GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter. September’s inflation-adjusted disposable income fell 0.3%, while annual PCE inflation reached 3.6%. The national growth figure and the household budget are telling different parts of the story.
October 29 · On the trail
Big announcements. Unfinished deals.
Reuters has followed the projects behind Trump’s campaign promises. Investment decisions, financing and delivery dates remain unsettled. In Kentucky, he linked promised Pentagon funding to a Republican victory.
October 29 · Accountability
Who gets answers—and who gets access.
The Pentagon watchdog has declined a bipartisan request to investigate Ukraine’s satellite disruptions. News outlets are back in court over continued press-pool exclusions. New reporting follows the money behind an opioid-policy reversal and Trump’s Venezuelan oil announcement.
October 29 · War after the vote
The planner is out. More strikes are being considered.
Hegseth has removed the Pentagon’s chief military planner while Trump weighs renewed attacks on Iran. U.S. officials have warned regional allies about possible strikes after the midterms and retaliation.
Earlier developments · October 28 edition
October 28 · Six days to go
South Carolina joins the knife-edge races.
Annie Andrews and Darline Graham are tied in the new Times/Siena Senate poll. Ohio gives Sherrod Brown another narrow lead. Florida and Minnesota tell different stories. The latest releases are now alongside the updated forecasts and market prices.
October 28 · Federal election pressure
The hunt for voters reaches across the country.
Reuters has documented more than 100 subpoenas seeking records on tens of thousands of voters across at least 12 states. The scale takes the story beyond the California and Washington confrontations already unfolding in court.
October 27 · The grand jury
Hutchinson’s prosecutors fail to secure an indictment.
The former White House aide testified about January 6. The attempt to prosecute her over that testimony has met resistance from a Washington grand jury.
October 28 · Ohio
The attack ad that voters saw—and mostly did not reward.
Ramaswamy put Acton’s estranged mother into an attack ad. Suffolk’s new survey measures the response, with Acton still ahead in the governor’s race.
October 28 · The economy
No rate cut before the vote.
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4%. Two dissenters wanted an increase. With six days left, the campaign reaches its final stretch without cheaper money from the central bank.
October 28 · Campaign disclosure
Filing resumes after the final-week outage.
Update: electronic filing resumed October 28 at 4:50 PM Eastern. The FEC is monitoring its fix after the final-week outage.
October 28 · War and the vote
More strikes after the election?
Asked about further attacks on Iran after the midterms, Trump left the door open. The war’s reported cost has passed $47 billion.
October 27 proposal · Energy
A campaign promise to the oil industry.
Trump used his Texas rally to announce a methane rollback. EPA’s proposal would dismantle the Super Emitter Program and loosen pollution controls for oil and gas producers.
October 27–28 · Follow the record
The government stories behind the campaign.
A judge challenged the case against two former FBI officials. Zelensky answered Musk over satellite use. Jeremy Lewin, who helped dismantle USAID, announced his departure from the State Department.
Earlier developments · October 27 edition
October 27 · The closing week
He wanted a vote on Trump. He is getting one.
Marist finds 44% of likely voters casting their congressional vote against Trump and 21% voting to support him. Reuters/Ipsos puts Democrats nine points ahead on the House ballot. The president’s approval in that survey is 32%.
October 26 · The fraud bounty
One million dollars for a conviction.
Trump has promised $1 million to anyone reporting election fraud that leads to an arrest and conviction. His post covers past elections and the midterms now underway. The offer arrives as his Justice Department presses states to set ballots aside.
October 26–27 · The count
An appeals defeat in California. Pressure in Washington.
The Ninth Circuit dismissed DOJ’s California appeal before the district court had ruled. In Washington, election officials are challenging a federal list of suspected noncitizens that includes decades-old records.
Made public October 26 · Retribution
A third prosecution of James Comey.
The administration has revived a ten-year-old disclosure allegation against the former FBI director. Comey’s lawyers say two earlier investigations ended without charges. Watch his response and read the filings.
October 27 · Forecasts and battlegrounds
The House advantage holds. Maine and Texas draw closer scrutiny.
DDHQ gives Democrats an 80% chance of House control and 57% in the Senate. New surveys put Troy Jackson at 49% to Susan Collins’s 47% in Maine, and James Talarico at 50% to Ken Paxton’s 45% among registered voters in Texas.
October 27 · The cost of the campaign
The pump price behind the pitch.
The new EIA release puts regular gasoline at $4.269 a gallon and diesel at $6.352. Trump has been selling his economic record in Mississippi; Washington and Ottawa are discussing tariff relief before election day.
October 26 · Congressional report
The Epstein files return to the campaign.
House Judiciary Democrats have published a new report, a fuller account from Beatrice Keul and a demand for a criminal investigation. The report also challenges the Justice Department’s handling of witness accounts and withheld records.
October 26–27 · Ukraine
Missiles arrive. Interceptors wait.
Zelensky says allied-funded air-defense missiles have been waiting nearly a month for Hegseth’s approval. Russia’s latest attack damaged university buildings as well as civilian infrastructure. In Washington, Jamie Raskin is challenging Trump’s opening for Russian diesel.
Earlier developments · October 26 edition
October 25 polling · Closing week
Trump wants a referendum. Voters may oblige.
CBS/YouGov puts Democrats ahead 53% to 45% among likely voters. Focaldata’s new poll gives them a nine-point lead. In four Republican-held Pennsylvania districts, Siena finds Democrats ahead in three and tied in the fourth. Trump spent Sunday asking supporters to vote as though he were on the ballot.
October 26 · Forecast update
A House advantage. A much tighter Senate.
DDHQ gives Democrats a 79% chance of taking the House and 57% in the Senate. Its projected seat totals are 238–197 and 51–49. Pennsylvania’s 1st District joins the House toss-ups; Nebraska’s Senate race moves from Likely to Lean Republican.
October 25 hearing · California
The judges question Washington’s reach.
Two Ninth Circuit judges pressed DOJ on its authority to intervene in California’s ballot count and its rush to appeal before the district court had ruled. The lower-court hearing remains scheduled for October 27.
October 26 · Money and power
The war hurts at the pump. His holdings grow.
Congressional Democrats’ new analysis puts Trump’s oil and gas holdings at an estimated $22.5 million to $81.6 million as of October 19. The report follows the purchases, the rising share prices and the fuel bill landing on American families.
October 26 · Campaign spending
Democrats put another $2.54 million on television.
House Majority PAC announced $380,000 for Indiana’s 5th District and $2.16 million for Minnesota’s 1st. The late buys put two more Republican-held seats in the closing-week advertising fight.
October 26 · Press freedom
The readers are suing, too.
Six members of the public have sued Trump and his aides over the exclusion of critical reporters. Their complaint challenges a presidency that tries to decide which questions reach it—and which reporting reaches everyone else.
Earlier developments · October 25 edition
October 24 reporting · California
A deadline, a threat and thousands of ballots.
Federal prosecutors gave California election officials 48 hours to supply voter information and separate ballots tied to a list of suspected noncitizens. County officials say the list contains serious errors. The pressure reaches local counting rooms as voting is already underway.
October 23 remarks · Alaska
Trump says the lawsuit was his idea.
Trump says he ordered the Alaska election lawsuit. The case could hold up a Mary Peltola victory, and the president has now claimed the decision as his own.
October 24 reporting · Accountability
The pardon discussions reach junior staff.
White House lawyers are reportedly weighing broad protection for employees carrying out Trump’s agenda. The discussions reach beyond his best-known aides and into the machinery of government.
October 25 reporting · Immigration courts
The judges deciding who stays behind bars.
A new investigation brings the immigration bench into focus. Read it alongside a court-filed account of two judges removed from their detained dockets in the middle of a morning’s work.
October 25 · Campaign trail
The fight for Michigan comes to Port Huron.
Trump’s scheduled visit follows Obama’s Saturday appearances in Michigan and Ohio. The open Senate seat pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, with attacks on El-Sayed’s religion running through the campaign.
October 25 snapshot · Prediction markets
The Senate price moves back.
Kalshi’s displayed price for Democratic Senate control is 63%, down from the 65% in yesterday’s brief. Its House figure is 90.6%. Polymarket shows 67% for the Senate and 92% for the House.
Earlier developments · October 24 edition
October 23 · Maine · Tariffs
Relief for Maine. Just before the vote.
Trump imposed the tariffs. Now selected Canadian goods get a reprieve as Susan Collins fights to keep her seat. The exemptions take effect October 30, four days before the election.
October 20–21 interviews · Rasmussen
Texas is tied in another survey.
James Talarico and Ken Paxton each take 45% in Rasmussen’s latest Texas poll. Libertarian Ted Brown has 5%; another 5% remain undecided. Compare it with the earlier TPOR, Emerson and Fox surveys below.
Poll details
965 likely voters, October 20–21; telephone and online interviews. Margin of error ±3 percentage points.
October 23 release · InsiderAdvantage
Three Senate races. Small gaps.
Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 47–44 in Ohio. Abdul El-Sayed edges Mike Rogers 47–46 in Michigan. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek 47–45. All three surveys interviewed likely voters on October 21–22.
Poll details
Each survey interviewed 1,200 likely voters using text invitations and an online panel; margin of error ±2.83 percentage points.
October 23 reporting · Public money
The benefits come with an election condition.
Fuel rules, a military academy, compensation for contaminated water: Trump is making government decisions part of his closing campaign pitch. He keeps attaching the same condition—Republicans must win.
October 24 reporting · Campaign advertising
A closing pitch about the price of living.
Democrats are putting $1 million behind five digital ads across 42 districts in 20 states. Gas, groceries and deportations drive the messages aimed at Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.
Advertising scrutiny · October 15 research
The public paid for the praise.
Wesleyan’s researchers tracked more than $22 million spent on five ads praising Trump and his administration, carrying a U.S. Government payment disclaimer. The tally runs through October 12.
Earlier developments · October 23 edition
Oct 22 filing · The vote
DOJ moves to hold up an Alaska result.
Before the votes are counted, Trump’s Justice Department is asking a federal judge to stop Alaska from certifying a Senate result it says could be affected by confusion between two candidates named Sullivan. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola.
Oct 23 · University of Michigan · Household finances
The election is getting closer. Relief is not.
Consumer sentiment finished October at 48.0, almost unchanged from September’s 48.1. Households expect inflation of 4.7% over the coming year. Michigan’s researchers point to the pressure of borrowing costs and rising prices; their new report traces inflation fears through Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war.
Oct 22 evening release · Fox News · Maine
Collins and Jackson are tied in Maine.
Susan Collins has no cushion in Fox News’s new Maine survey: she and Troy Jackson each take 49% among likely voters. The race is one of the narrow Senate contests that could decide whether Republicans keep control.
Poll details
Fox News / Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research: 1,514 likely voters interviewed October 16–20, by live telephone and text-to-web. Margin of error ±2.5 percentage points. Released October 22; the vote question includes a follow-up asking undecided voters which way they lean.
Oct 23 release · Texas Public Opinion Research
Another Texas poll puts Talarico ahead.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51% to 47% in the latest release from Texas Public Opinion Research, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2%.
Poll details
969 Texas likely voters, October 15–18; margin of error ±3.9 percentage points. Released October 23. Undecided voters were asked to choose a candidate.
Oct 23 · Emerson / KELOLAND · Healthcare
South Dakota voters push back on the Medicaid trigger.
South Dakota’s Amendment I would repeal Medicaid expansion if the federal funding share fell below 90%. Emerson finds 59% opposed and 27% in favor. In the Senate race, Republican Mike Rounds leads independent Brian Bengs 50–42 before undecided voters are asked which way they lean, and 54–46 afterward.
Poll details
803 South Dakota likely voters interviewed October 19–21; credibility interval ±3.5 percentage points.
Oct 23 · Campaign advertising
Abortion rights move into the closing pitch.
Reproductive Freedom for All has released two new videos attacking Ryan Mackenzie’s abortion record in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. Alongside mail campaigns supporting Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and Kathy Castor in Florida, its latest digital and mail programs total more than $470,000.
Earlier developments · October 22 edition
Oct 22 · Emerson / Nexstar · Texas poll
Texas refuses to settle.
James Talarico and Ken Paxton are still fighting over a race Republicans once expected to hold. Emerson’s new Texas poll puts Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 48% after undecided voters are asked which way they lean. Fox News, released the previous evening, has them tied at 49%.
Poll details
Emerson interviewed 1,000 Texas likely voters October 17–19; its reported credibility interval is ±3.1 points. The 49–48 result includes undecided voters’ leanings; before that follow-up it was 48–46. Fox’s poll, released October 21, interviewed October 15–19 and includes 1,398 likely voters, with a ±2.5-point margin of error.
Oct 21 release · Fox News · Ohio poll
Brown leads in Ohio.
Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 52% to 47% among likely voters in the new Fox News poll. The governor’s race is closer: Amy Acton has 50% to Vivek Ramaswamy’s 48%. The interviews ended October 19, before Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother became public.
Poll details
Fox News / Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research interviewed October 15–19. These results use 1,592 likely voters, with a ±2-point margin of error.
Oct 21 release · CNN / SSRS · National poll
Trump is weighing on the Republican ticket.
Trump wanted the midterms to be about him. CNN’s new poll shows the risk: only 32% of adults approve of his performance, while registered voters favor Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans, 49% to 39%. The interviews were conducted October 15–18.
Oct 20 filing · Reported Oct 21 · Voting rights
The fight over who gets a ballot reaches federal court.
Democratic leaders and campaign committees have sued Trump, the Justice Department and Homeland Security over pressure on states to remove voters, withhold ballots and threaten election officials. Their complaint challenges the administration’s use of unreliable noncitizen lists as voting is already underway.
Oct 22 · Labor Department · Jobs
Fewer new unemployment claims. More people still collecting.
New unemployment claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing claims moved the other way: 1.728 million people were receiving benefits in the week ending October 10, up 25,000. Both figures are seasonally adjusted. The weekly release adds a fresh reading on layoffs while the broader jobs and inflation figures remain September’s.
Earlier developments · October 20–21
Oct 21 · Marist · Michigan poll
Michigan is close. Trump is giving his opponents a reason to vote.
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 50–48 among likely voters in Marist’s Michigan Senate poll, a two-point gap inside its ±4.3-point margin of error. But Trump’s appeal to make the election about himself runs into a familiar problem: 44% say their congressional vote is mainly against him; just 18% say it is mainly for him. In a close contest, that is a difficult foundation for a Republican campaign.
Who was polled, and when
Marist interviewed 1,185 Michigan registered voters October 15–18 by phone, text or online. The results above are for likely voters, a subset with a ±4.3-point margin of error. The full registered-voter sample has a ±4.0-point margin. The release does not give the likely-voter sample size.
Oct 21 · Reuters · Texas campaign money
Trump picked Paxton. Musk’s money is helping try to save him.
Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which then transferred matching sums to Texas PAC, Reuters reports. Outside groups backing Ken Paxton have spent about $239 million, against roughly $45 million from the largest Democratic-aligned groups. Combined advertising in the race has passed $500 million. Republicans are pouring money into a Senate seat they once took for granted, trying to stop James Talarico from turning Texas into the election’s biggest upset.
Oct 20 rally · Reuters reporting Oct 21 · North Carolina
$5,000 if Republicans win. Nothing if they lose.
Campaigning for Michael Whatley in Greenville, Trump repeated his promise of $5,000 for every U.S. adult if Republicans hold Congress. “If we lose, you get nothing.” Roy Cooper leads in the polls, and some Republican groups have pulled back. Trump’s response was to put a price on keeping his party in power.
Earlier developments · October 19–20
Oct 20 · Marist · Ohio poll
Ohio puts another Republican seat under pressure.
Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 48–44 among likely voters in Marist’s new Ohio poll. The four-point gap sits inside the poll’s ±4.5-point margin of error. More telling for Trump’s campaign pitch: 40% say they are voting against him, against 21% voting to support him. Fieldwork: October 15–18.
Oct 19 · Reuters / Ipsos · National poll
Trump’s campaign problem gets harder to ignore.
Trump’s approval has fallen to 31%, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos reading of either term. Registered voters favor Democrats for Congress by 47–35. Among adults, 68% disapprove of his economic management. He wants the election to be about him; these figures show why Democrats are happy to oblige.
Oct 20 · Bureau of Labor Statistics · State jobs
The jobs picture changes from state to state.
September’s figures, released October 20, put unemployment at 5.0% in Michigan, 3.4% in Ohio and 3.3% in Maine. Wisconsin lost 13,700 payroll jobs over the month; South Carolina gained 12,500. Employment was essentially unchanged in 47 states. These are seasonally adjusted September estimates, not October readings.
Oct 20 · Campaign advertising
Trump and household bills dominate the new ad wave.
House Majority PAC has announced television ads across 25 districts. In Arizona it ties Jay Feely to Trump; in Wisconsin it attacks Derrick Van Orden over data centers. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund also announced Alaska and Michigan attack ads on October 20. The campaign arguments are getting sharper as voting draws closer.
Earlier developments · October 14–15
Oct 15 · Wesleyan Media Project · Research
AI is part of the ad war.
Researchers identified 220 AI-generated ads and more than $137 million in estimated spending. Only 27% carried a disclaimer; the count is an underestimate.
Oct 14 · Semafor · Reporting
Campaign money shifts to Maine and Michigan.
Senate Majority PAC redirects spending toward two Senate contests. Allocation decisions offer a window into campaign priorities.
Oct 14 · Supreme Court · Primary document
The ad-rate dispute reaches the Court.
A procedural stay in the political advertising rate dispute. The order does not settle the underlying rate question.
After the election
The accountability question.
67Senate votes
To convict and remove, if all 100 senators are present. The House first impeaches by a simple majority. Winning either chamber does not establish how its members would vote on a charge.
Separate prediction market
21%Kalshi’s displayed assessment of Trump’s impeachment and Senate conviction while in office before January 20, 2029.
October 21, 2026 snapshot · This contract covers the remaining presidential term. It is not a forecast that the midterms produce 67 conviction votes.
Sources & method
What is a forecast, a poll, a market price or a result?
DDHQ supplies the election projections and race ratings used here. Its forecast blends polling, fundamentals and prediction markets. Polling percentages measure voter responses; win probabilities measure the chance of an outcome. The displayed snapshot contains forecasts, not certified election results. The projected dots illustrate aggregate seat totals, not individual district calls. DDHQ method
Senate seats, independents and the 67-vote threshold
Only 35 Senate seats are contested. The 65 holdovers are 32 Democrats, two independents who caucus with Democrats, and 31 Republicans. The ratings view uses faded holdover dots and solid contest dots. Independents challenging for seats are identified as independents, with no automatic Democratic caucus assignment. The constitutional conviction threshold is two-thirds of senators present: 67 with 100 present. It is separate from ordinary Senate control. Senate facts
Source dates, campaign claims and linked site content
Election forecasts were checked October 24. Market prices retain their individual source dates. It does not yet refresh these election and market records automatically. Each poll, economic release and advertisement retains its date. The inflation and employment cards refresh from the site’s saved BLS data via FRED; their displayed month remains the observation date. If that feed is unavailable, the dated figures stay in place. Each ad links to its sponsor’s original publication. Montana’s race detail includes additional confirmed candidates even when DDHQ does not display individual win probabilities. Existing 47 Files charts and investigations remain linked to their original records. The 47 Files sources & method
← All topicsThe midterms.
Midterms 2026 · The 47 Files
The midterms.
Trump’s grip on the ballot.
He helped choose the candidates. He helped drive out the dissenters. Now comes the test: can Trump’s party win the voters it needs—and accept the result if it cannot?
The vote itself · New reporting
Before the count, the calls for martial law.
The midterms are still ahead. Some of Trump’s allies are already discussing what he should do if Republicans lose: bring in the military.
On a September 30 election-activist call, Peter Ticktin, Trump’s childhood friend and lawyer, argued for martial law if Democrats won an election he claimed would be rigged. The Telegraph reported his allegations of widespread postal-ballot fraud without finding evidence to support them. Another participant, Gregory Stenstrom, wanted the election paused or emergency powers used to force changes in state voting procedures.
These proposals came from outside allies. Asked about the reporting, the White House defended Trump’s election policies without announcing a martial-law plan. The significance lies in what people close to the president are urging him to do before the votes have even been counted.
The effort was already under way in September. Democracy Docket documented Ticktin promoting an election takeover on Wayne Allyn Root’s program, alongside a wider push against mail voting and for seizing voting machines. Casting doubt on the result in advance prepares an argument for overriding it afterwards.
There is a history here. In December 2020, proposals to seize voting machines reached the White House. Flynn’s subsequent public remarks about a Myanmar-style coup—and his denial afterwards—are preserved elsewhere in this record. The new demands belong to the 2026 campaign; those earlier episodes show where the argument has been before.
October 20 filing · Reported October 21
The government is pressing states over who gets to vote.
The argument has moved from allies’ calls to federal action. Democratic congressional leaders, campaign committees, Nevada Democrats and a California voter sued Trump, DOJ and DHS on October 20. They accuse the administration of using flawed noncitizen lists and threats against election officials to force people off the rolls or keep their ballots from being counted.
The complaint asks the court to block those demands and the intimidation behind them. It argues that Washington is taking election powers the law leaves with the states. With voting already underway, the immediate fight is over whose ballot reaches the count.
October 22 filing
A court fight over the result, before election day.
On October 23, Trump said he had ordered the lawsuit: “I’m the one that said, ‘do it,’” he told reporters in Florida.
Trump’s Justice Department has asked a federal judge to block Alaska from certifying a Senate result that it claims could be affected by confusion between incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and challenger Dan J. Sullivan. Its October 22 lawsuit targets a scenario in which Democrat Mary Peltola wins but the incumbent would have won if the other Sullivan’s votes had gone to him.
Alaska’s Supreme Court had already protected the challenger’s candidacy. The general election uses ranked-choice voting, and the ballot distinguishes the two men. DOJ now wants certification held up while the disputed votes are investigated.
The campaign is now under investigation.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a criminal investigation after reporting that Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit a candidate with a name resembling Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan’s. Trump had called for Peltola’s prosecution. The recruitment allegations add another confrontation to the certification lawsuit already described above.
DOJ expands its challenge before a vote is counted.
The Justice Department amended its complaint October 29, adding allegations about the recruitment of the second Dan Sullivan. It still seeks to stop certification if Peltola wins in the specified scenario. Alaska’s election officials are asking the judge to dismiss the case.
October 26 · Trump’s original post
A million-dollar bounty on election fraud.
Eight days before the election, Trump put a price on the fraud story he has spent years telling. On October 26, he promised $1 million to anyone who reports election fraud in a past election or in the 2026 midterms, payable “upon the arrest and conviction” of those responsible.
The wording makes a criminal conviction the condition for payment. It also gives the promise a broad reach: an allegation about a past contest can qualify just as an allegation about the votes being cast now can. His post identifies no funding source, administrator or process for claiming the money.
The offer arrives while his Justice Department is trying to influence which ballots reach the count. California is fighting a demand involving more than 20,000 voters. Washington is challenging a federal list built partly on old records. In Alaska, DOJ has asked a court to intervene in certification over two Senate candidates sharing the Sullivan name.
Trump is offering a financial incentive to produce cases that would support his account of American elections, while the government he leads has the machinery to investigate and prosecute them. The reward and the state-level legal fights belong in the same record.
This follows his separate promise of $5,000 per adult citizen if Republicans retain both chambers of Congress. One ties a proposed payment to a party’s victory; the other promises payment after a fraud conviction. Both have entered the closing weeks of an election he insists should be a verdict on him.
October 28 ruling · October 29 appeal reporting
California can count the ballots. DOJ wants that reversed.
The Justice Department’s October 15 complaint seeks to hold back mail ballots associated with more than 20,000 registered voters it has flagged as likely noncitizens. Federal prosecutors followed with demands to county registrars, a 48-hour deadline and warnings of prosecution.
Judge David Carter rejected DOJ’s request to set aside roughly 20,000 California ballots on October 28. The department appealed, seeking urgent intervention from the Ninth Circuit. The dispute over the federal voter list now moves to the appeals court while Californians continue voting.
The inquiry reaches Los Angeles election officials.
Reuters reports that Los Angeles County’s election office received federal grand-jury subpoenas last week, seeking voter information. The newly reported subpoenas widen the picture of federal pressure as DOJ pursues its appeal over California’s ballots.
October 26 response · Washington
A federal list. A state warning about bad records.
Washington’s secretary of state, Steve Hobbs, says the federal government’s suspected-noncitizen list is catching legitimate citizens. His October 26 statement says some of the underlying information is decades old, including a record from 1994. The demand covers roughly 400 people.
Hobbs also raised objections to the federal system’s ten-year retention of sensitive data. The confrontation follows DOJ’s failed attempt last month to obtain Washington’s full voter list. With voting underway, state officials are being asked to act on records they say cannot safely bear that weight.
The campaign pitch · The polling test
He wants a vote on himself.
That may be the problem.
Trump keeps asking his supporters to imagine his name on the ballot. He made the appeal in South Carolina, in his interview with Trey Gowdy, at the Dallas convention—and again in Michigan on October 25. This is the campaign he wants: a vote on him.
Fox’s October poll suggests he may get that referendum without getting the result he wants. Nearly twice as many registered voters said opposition to Trump would be one reason for their congressional vote as said support for him. Making himself the center of the campaign could give his opponents more to work with than his candidates.
The new Michigan poll puts that problem in a tightly fought Senate race: Trump is motivating far more opponents than supporters. Read the new Michigan findings
CBS’s newer survey carries the same warning. Among likely voters, 41% describe their congressional vote as opposition to Trump; 26% call it support for him. A third say their vote is not about him. The October 21–23 poll
Marist’s October 27 release sharpens the risk in that strategy: 44% of likely voters describe their congressional choice as a vote against Trump, against 21% who call it a vote for him. His effort to nationalize the election has given his opponents a ready-made organizing principle. Explore the latest polls
Watch the full speech on YouTube · Read the ballot appeal
Fox News poll · October 9–12, 2026
One reason for their congressional vote
Among registered voters
47%Opposition to Trump
25%Support for Trump
The warning reaches beyond personal approval. In the same survey, 88% were extremely or very concerned about government corruption, 85% about inflation and high prices, and 83% about gas prices. These are uncomfortable subjects for a president asking to be judged on his record.
His tariffs, his war and the business interests surrounding his presidency give that argument substance. Democrats are already tying Republican candidates to the costs of his decisions. AP counted nearly 180,000 airings of Democratic television ads mentioning Trump since September 1, against roughly 16,000 Republican airings. Trump wants the election to be about him. His opponents are spending heavily to grant the wish.
Four documented appearances. The same appeal.
- August 21 · Myrtle Beach. Campaigning for Darline Graham, Trump asked supporters to vote as though his own name were on the ballot. Official rally transcript
- Late August · Trey Gowdy interview. He repeated the request on Fox, arguing that his supporters turn out when he is running. The interview and reporting
- September 9 · Dallas convention. He brought the appeal to the party’s midterm showcase and returned to it during his speech. Read the reporting
- October 25 · Port Huron. He repeated the appeal at his Michigan rally. CNN transcript of the recorded remarks
A selection of verified appearances, rather than a complete count of every repetition.
Do you want to know more?
Fox News / Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research · 1,202 registered voters · October 9–12, 2026. Full-sample margin of error ±2.5 points; the concern questions used half the sample, ±4 points. 27% said Trump was not a factor in their vote.
The Republican primaries
Who got the backing.
Who got pushed aside.
Winning a Republican primary and winning a general election are different tests. These races show how Trump shaped the choice before the wider electorate had its say.
Selected races · Primary defeats below are losses of renomination, not immediate removal from office.
He pushed for the Epstein files. Trump pushed him out of the nomination.
Thomas Massie had represented his Kentucky district since 2012. He pressed for the release of the Epstein files, opposed the Iran war and voted against Trump’s signature tax legislation. Trump backed Ed Gallrein to replace him. In May, Gallrein won.
Massie still led in his home county, Lewis, when AP called the race. But Gallrein was ahead in the populous northern Kentucky counties that supplied much of the vote. A local following could not carry Massie through a primary fought under the weight of presidential opposition. His defeat removed a Republican critic from the November ballot.
Do you want to know more?
Cornyn tried to make himself indispensable. Trump chose Paxton.
John Cornyn spent months demonstrating that he belonged on Trump’s side. He proposed naming a stretch of interstate after him and abandoned his defense of the Senate filibuster to help advance Trump’s voting legislation. Trump backed Ken Paxton instead. The four-term senator lost the Republican runoff.
The primary settled the nomination, not the party’s divisions. By October, Trump was demanding that Cornyn’s voters rally behind Paxton—and blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for making that harder. The incumbent he helped defeat had become a convenient explanation for the nominee’s difficulties.
Do you want to know more?
Five years later, the impeachment vote still counted against him.
Bill Cassidy voted to convict Trump after January 6. Five years later, he could not persuade enough Louisiana Republicans to give him another term. Trump-backed Julia Letlow and state treasurer John Fleming finished ahead of him in the May primary. Letlow subsequently won their June runoff.
Cassidy had tried to repair the relationship, including voting to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary despite his concerns about vaccines. It did not erase the impeachment vote. Trump celebrated his defeat. For Republican officeholders weighing whether to challenge the president, the lesson was difficult to miss.
Do you want to know more?
They refused to redraw the map. Trump went after their seats.
Indiana’s Republican senators had blocked Trump’s demand for a new congressional map. He responded by backing primary challengers against seven of them. AP’s May reporting documented at least five defeats—a warning to lawmakers elsewhere who might resist reshaping districts for his party’s advantage.
This fight reached below Washington. State legislators, whose votes help determine the ground rules for congressional elections, faced presidential retaliation for refusing the requested map. The story belongs beside the Senate and House primaries: Trump was trying to shape both the candidates and the constituencies they would contest.
Do you want to know more?
A familiar surname. A presidential endorsement. A campaign of her own.
After Lindsey Graham’s death, his sister Darline was appointed to complete his Senate term. Trump then backed her bid to stay. His endorsement put presidential influence behind a family succession, giving her a powerful advantage in the contest to inherit her brother’s political position.
She came with experience in state administration, including leading the Commission for the Blind. What she had not built was a comparable electoral career. Her campaign tests how far a famous name and Trump’s support can carry a candidate when voters are choosing a senator, rather than mourning one.
October 23: The split now reaches Ralph Norman’s family. His son Warren, a lifelong Republican, endorsed Democrat Annie Andrews in an op-ed, questioning Darline Graham’s independence from her campaign backers, AP reported. Read the reporting
Do you want to know more?
Trump’s endorsement comes with public humiliation.
Ken Paxton won Trump’s backing. That did not spare him Trump’s insults. In campaign footage broadcast by CNN on October 14, the president criticized his appearance, clothes and television performances before acknowledging how closely Paxton had stood by him.
The following day, Trump shifted the blame outward. If Paxton lost, he argued on Truth Social, Cornyn and Karl Rove would be responsible. The November result was still ahead; the excuses were already taking shape. For Paxton, presidential support meant accepting both the endorsement and the put-downs.
The public mood
The party is his.
The electorate is another question.
Follow the approval trends, the state picture and the issues voters are weighing. Each chart keeps its own observation date; the full polling record stays in one place.
Polling & approval
The national trend, individual surveys and their sources.
The state picture
Trump’s standing across states, with the coverage and dates shown.
What worries voters
The Fox News poll on corruption, prices and other concerns.
Campaign activity
Where he goes.
What follows.
A selected record of appearances and interventions. Follow each stop into the candidate’s story, then compare the eventual result with the promises made along the way.
October 24 · The closing pitch
Vote Republican. Then the government delivers.
In Kansas, Trump turned a fuel rule into a favor for Roger Marshall. At his October 19 rally, he promised permanent year-round E15 sales with the Republican senator in office. Then he named Marshall’s Democratic opponent: “But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it.”
The same pitch has traveled. Ohio’s proposed Space Academy depends on a midterm win. At Camp Lejeune, he linked faster settlements for contaminated-water victims to Republican control of Congress. Public benefits become something the president offers on the campaign trail.
October 25 · Port Huron, Michigan
He still wants his name on the ballot.
Trump campaigned in Port Huron on Sunday and returned to his familiar plea: “I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot.” The appearance came as Mike Rogers fought Abdul El-Sayed for Michigan’s open Senate seat.
October 26 · Corinth, Mississippi
Even Mississippi gets a presidential rescue visit.
Trump campaigned for Cindy Hyde-Smith in Corinth on Monday as she faced Democrat Scott Colom and independent Ty Pinkins. “Cindy’s doing great but I’ve got to make sure,” he told the crowd. He promoted a booming economy and lower fuel prices; the next EIA release put regular gasoline at $4.269 a gallon, still well above a year earlier.
Kentucky: a visit before the primary
Trump traveled to Hebron during the campaign against Massie. Gallrein’s subsequent primary victory is recorded above.
The presidential recordSouth Carolina: on stage for Graham
The official transcript records Trump campaigning for Darline Graham in Myrtle Beach. Her general-election verdict is still ahead.
Read the rally transcriptTexas: an endorsement becomes a blame game
Trump called for Cornyn voters to back Paxton and assigned responsibility for a possible defeat to Cornyn and Rove.
Read the original postNorth Carolina: the promise comes with strings.
At the Greenville rally for Whatley, Trump repeated his conditional payment pledge.
The rally and its stakes
Follow the campaign
The latest reporting.
Midterms coverage from the site’s monitored news sources, alongside the reports behind this page.
Selected reporting · Dates shown beside each report
Axios · October 16, 2026
Trump’s allies openly discuss martial law
The Texas Tribune · October 15, 2026
Trump blames Cornyn and Rove if Paxton loses
CNN · October 14, 2026