The victory lap.
The household bill.

Congressional Democrats estimate that Americans spent an extra $101.4 billion on gasoline after the Iran war began—about $856 per household. Their October 26 update uses price data through October 14 and national and state fuel-consumption figures.

The same report tracks the growth of Trump’s oil and gas investments. His portfolio and a family’s gas bill tell different stories about the same energy shock.

A raise can disappear at the checkout. Private-sector wages rose 3.1% over the year through September, according to the BLS Employment Cost Index. After inflation, purchasing power fell 0.6%. The final pre-election wage release gives a sharper picture of the squeeze behind the campaign’s economic claims.

The figures arrive four days before the election, following September’s fall in real disposable income. A stronger national growth figure has not ended the pressure on household budgets.

November 2 updateFactories are busier. The inputs are still expensive.

The October ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5, with production at 59.0 and employment at 52.4. The prices index eased to 75.2 but still showed widespread increases. Manufacturers named tariffs and the Middle East conflict among the forces pushing up costs.

The indexes measure the direction and breadth of change, with 50 as the dividing line. A prices reading of 75.2 means increases are widespread; it does not measure the size of those increases.

Exxon and Chevron beat quarterly earnings expectations as disruption from the Iran war and the conflict in Ukraine lifted refining profits. Exxon’s refining earnings exceeded its production earnings for the first time in at least six years, Reuters reports. Chevron’s downstream business had its strongest quarter over the same period.

Higher fuel costs drain household budgets. Inside the oil companies, the same disruption is feeding a surge in refining income. The earnings reports put the distribution of the war’s economic costs in plain view.

The economy expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter. That is faster than the second quarter’s 2.2%. Five days before the vote, Trump has a stronger growth number to put on the campaign stage.

September’s household figures tell the other part of the story. Inflation-adjusted disposable income fell 0.3% and real spending barely moved. PCE prices were 3.6% higher than a year earlier; the measure excluding food and energy rose 3.1%. Growth has not removed the pressure on purchasing power.

The Fed held its benchmark range at 3.75%–4% on October 28. The vote was 10–2; the dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point increase. Inflation remained elevated in the central bank’s assessment.

For Trump, there is no pre-election rate cut to fold into his economic pitch. For borrowers, the pressures documented below remain: expensive housing credit, fuel costs and a household budget stretched long before the campaign reached its final week.

The campaign has one account of the economy. The gas station has another. EIA’s October 27 release puts the national average for regular gasoline at $4.269 a gallon, down 1.5 cents over the week but $1.234 above its price a year earlier. Diesel is $6.352, up 7.6 cents in a week and $2.634 over a year.

Diesel’s price follows goods through the economy: trucks, deliveries, farming and the businesses that move supplies. A small weekly fall in gasoline does not undo the much larger increase families have absorbed.

The figures arrive seven days before the midterms, as Trump campaigns on his economic record and his administration discusses tariff relief with Canada. Read them alongside the earlier congressional estimate of the war’s additional gasoline cost and the president’s oil-stock holdings.