Polling & approval.

Emerson’s final national survey puts Democrats ten points ahead on the congressional ballot. The president’s approval is well below his disapproval, with household costs and government corruption leading the list of issues. The closing campaign is running through the consequences of his own presidency.

The full figures, sample and fieldwork are in the Midterm Brief, alongside the separate state polls and election forecast.

Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall, 49% to 45%, in Emerson’s final Kansas survey. The poll puts Trump underwater in the state, with 45% approval and 51% disapproval. The economy dominates voters’ concerns.

The survey of 800 likely voters ran October 26–28, with a margin of error of ±3.5 points. A separate Washington Post/Schar poll has Hamilton up nine; the Post flags weaker Republican participation in its sample.

Five days before the election, CNN’s new state polls put Democrats ahead in Texas and Michigan and within reach in Maine and Kansas. The figures are now in the Brief, alongside the fieldwork dates and margins of error.

DDHQ has moved its Senate projection to 52 Democratic seats and 48 Republican seats, with a 60% chance of Democratic control. Its House projection remains 238–197 Democratic. The Senate battle is being fought across a widening set of states.

South Carolina’s Senate race is level in the new Times/Siena release. Ohio remains close, while Florida and Minnesota lean in opposite directions. The Brief now puts these releases beside the forecasts, with their pollsters and dates intact.

New York adds a blunt verdict on Trump: Marist finds 47% of likely voters saying their congressional choice is mainly a vote against him, against 18% voting in his favor. The same survey puts his approval at 38% and disapproval at 61%.

The Ohio release also tests the reception of Ramaswamy’s attack on Acton through her estranged mother. The ad had wide reach. The reported switching went more often toward Acton. Explore the figures and the existing ad coverage in the Brief.

Marist’s October 27 release puts Democrats eight points ahead among likely voters. More than twice as many say their congressional choice is a vote against Trump as say it is a vote for him.

Reuters/Ipsos’s later interviews give Democrats a nine-point House-ballot lead. Trump’s adult approval is 32%; his ratings on the economy and cost of living are lower. The newest state releases add pressure in Maine and Texas. Explore the national figures, state results and methodology

CBS/YouGov’s October 21–23 survey puts Democrats ahead 53% to 45% among likely voters. Trump’s approval is 39% among adults; 61% disapprove. On the economy, disapproval reaches 67%.

Focaldata’s October 16–20 survey, released October 25, gives Democrats a nine-point national lead. The Pennsylvania district results add a local warning for Republicans: Democratic challengers lead in three of four seats tested by Siena, with the fourth tied.