# Trump’s record on crime — research draft

Snapshot: 28 September 2026. Page is a draft for review, not a published release.

## Source inventory and availability

| Series | Version / locator | Coverage and limitations |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FBI national annual rates | 2025 Reported Crimes in the Nation, figures 1–2, pages 9–10 | 2006–2025; revised historical rates; 2021 explicitly not comparable; revised rape definition from 2013 |
| FBI latest annual counts / rates | Same report, national estimates, pages 6–7 | Full 2025 estimates; historical counts not extracted in this draft |
| NCVS nonfatal violence | Criminal Victimization, 2024, appendix table 1 | 2008–2024 rates and 95% intervals; persons 12+; legacy instrument; 2025 redesign requires a separate comparison |
| Real-Time Crime Index | crimeindex.org, accessed 28 September 2026 | January–July 2025 / 2026 matched counts, 565 agencies, about 113.2m residents; not national annual estimates |
| CCJ mid-year report | 2026 mid-year update | Category-specific city samples; preliminary; not interchangeable with Crime Index |
| DC MPD daily counts | mpdc.dc.gov/dailycrime, 28 September 2026 | Matched year-to-date; local DC Code definitions; revisions possible |
| CDC homicide mortality | cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm | 2024 all homicide and firearm homicide; death certificates, not FBI offences |

## Data dictionary and calculations

`annual`: rates per 100,000 residents. `murder`, `rape`, `robbery`, `assault`, `burglary`, `larceny`, `vehicles` are the published components. `violent` before 2013 is null; 2013–2023 is reconstructed by adding rounded components and is not an extracted official aggregate. `property` before 2024 is similarly reconstructed. The page charts only individual components. Official aggregate rates are supplied for 2024 and 2025.

2021 values remain in `fbi-rates-transcription.json` but are null in the chart dataset, following the FBI footnote. Rape endpoint comparisons spanning 2013 are withheld.

Endpoint change = `(end rate / baseline rate - 1) × 100`. Rounded-rate changes are approximate. Use published FBI unrounded-estimate percentage changes for official 2025 headlines. The current Trump term has only one completed calendar year. Calendar endpoints are outcomes, not causal estimates.

`ncvs`: nonfatal victimisations per 1,000 persons aged 12+, with `low`, `high` 95% confidence limits and asymmetric plotting `error`. This includes simple assault and excludes homicide. It must not be compared numerically to FBI violent rates.

`latest` and `dc`: prior/current matched-period offence counts. Percentage changes use the same endpoint formula. Neither is a national annual rate.

## Primary documents and sources

- FBI report: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/resources/reports/UCR_Summary_of_Reported_Crimes_in_the_Nation_2025.pdf
- FBI release: https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2025-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statistics
- NCVS: https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pdf
- Crime Index: https://crimeindex.org/ and https://crimeindex.org/methodology
- CCJ: https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/
- MPD: https://mpdc.dc.gov/dailycrime
- CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm
- DC 2024 baseline: https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/violent-crime-dc-hits-30-year-low
- Los Angeles ruling, 2 September 2025: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/9-2-25-ruling-Breyer.pdf
- Supreme Court emergency order, 23 December 2025: https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/25a443-order.pdf

The claim register is in the accompanying page source: each claim has a date, verdict, original source or contemporaneous source, and a separately sourced statistical test. Two PBS video players cover the DC intervention; an ABC source link documents the February 2017 murder-rate claim.

## Outstanding work for the fuller brief

Historical national counts and population estimates, pooled term rates, complete-term means, additional original claim footage, further state/local case studies and a fuller claims register remain to be compiled. Do not infer counts from rounded rates, interpolate 2021, or describe this draft as completing those items. Current legal appeal dispositions need another check before publication.

## Update procedure

Check new FBI and BJS releases; check current Crime Index and MPD snapshots; preserve dated prior versions; recompute comparisons when historical estimates change. This is a proposed editorial procedure, not an enabled automation.